Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 17% chance of winning. September 30 follows in second place at 7%, while June 30 sits in third with 0.8%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $473K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (17%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 17¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $3.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• September 30 (7%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, September 30 maintains a 7% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 7¢.
• June 30 (0.8%): Sitting in third place with a 0.8% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward June 30, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.

A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so.

Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies June 30 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.8% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 22.2% — yielding an impressive +21.4% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include September 30 (EV Gap: +19.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.