Trump approval rating on July 10?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Trump approval rating on July 10?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, <39.0 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 3,800% chance of winning. 40.5–40.9 follows in second place at 3,800%, while 40.0–40.4 sits in third with 2,350%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $131, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• <39.0 (3,800%): Currently commanding the highest probability, <39.0 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 3,800¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $20 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 40.5–40.9 (3,800%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 40.5–40.9 maintains a 3,800% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3,800¢.
• 40.0–40.4 (2,350%): Sitting in third place with a 2,350% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 40.0–40.4, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 39.5–39.9 (2,300%), 39.0–39.4 (1,750%), and 41.0+ (500%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 39.5–39.9 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on July 10, 2026.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.