Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, June 30 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4.2% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $5.2M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• June 30 (4.2%): Currently commanding the highest probability, June 30 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $2.2M in volume.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any US-Iran ceasefire commitment to refrain from military hostilities in effect, including statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.

Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the US government and the US military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome June 30 currently trades at 4.2%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -3.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.