Tour De France 2026: Green Jersey

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Tour De France 2026: Green Jersey”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Tadej Pogačar is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. Jonas Vingegaard follows in second place at 5,000%, while Paul Seixas sits in third with 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Tadej Pogačar (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Tadej Pogačar is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Jonas Vingegaard (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Jonas Vingegaard maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.
• Paul Seixas (5,000%): Sitting in third place with a 5,000% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Paul Seixas, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Remco Evenepoel (5,000%), Florian Lipowitz (5,000%), and Juan Ayuso (5,000%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Isaac del Toro are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Green Jersey for the 2026 Tour De France.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by UCI rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.