Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31, 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 26% chance of winning. June 30, 2026 follows in second place at 2.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $100.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31, 2026 (26%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31, 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 26¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $1.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• June 30, 2026 (2.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, June 30, 2026 maintains a 2.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome June 30, 2026 currently trades at 2.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -1.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies December 31, 2026 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 26% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 27.5% — yielding an impressive +1.5% EV Gap.