Quebec General Election Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Quebec General Election Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, PQ is dominating the market with an overwhelming 60% chance of winning. CAQ follows in second place at 16.5%, while PLQ sits in third with 14%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $578K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• PQ (60%): Currently commanding the highest probability, PQ is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 60¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $60.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• CAQ (16.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, CAQ maintains a 16.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 17¢.
• PLQ (14%): Sitting in third place with a 14% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward PLQ, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~9.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes PCQ (0.3%), PVQ (0.2%), and QS (0.2%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like PCQ are still attracting notable interest.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome PQ currently trades at 60%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 53.3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -6.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies PVQ as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.2% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 25.8% — yielding an impressive +25.6% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include QS (EV Gap: +24.3%) and PCQ (EV Gap: +19.3%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.