Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, January 31, 2027 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 60.5% chance of winning. January 15, 2027 follows in second place at 46%, while December 31, 2026 sits in third with 14.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $903.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• January 31, 2027 (60.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, January 31, 2027 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 61¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $10.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• January 15, 2027 (46%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, January 15, 2027 maintains a 46% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 46¢.
• December 31, 2026 (14.5%): Sitting in third place with a 14.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward December 31, 2026, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between December 2, 2025 and the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies December 31, 2026 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 14.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 21% — yielding an impressive +6.5% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include January 15, 2027 (EV Gap: +6.1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.