OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? is dominating the market with an overwhelming 11% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $334.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? (11%): Currently commanding the highest probability, OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 11¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $334.8K in volume.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | 11.0% | $334.8K | 11¢ | 89¢ |
Result Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 11% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 21.2% — yielding an impressive +10.2% EV Gap.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Best EV | 11.0% | 21.2% | +10.2% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Oct 24, 2026
- 06:21 PMTETenPinBowler$40.00
Sold 45.46 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.88
- 06:21 PMEIeightball.mood$44.00
Sold 50 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.88
- 06:21 PMHIhighfiveHQ$44.50
Sold 50 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.89
- 06:21 PMNINineLivesCat$56.99
Sold 64.03 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.89
- 06:21 PM——$4.04
Sold 4.54 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.89
- 06:21 PMTETenPinBowler$4.04
Sold 4.54 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.89
- 06:20 PMLOlongdated-poli$48.54
Sold 54.54 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.89
- 06:20 PMJIjiangyupeng01$6.00
Bought 54.54 Yes for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.11
- 06:20 PMISIstaroth$0.45
Sold 4.54 Yes for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.1
- 06:20 PMVIViscaElBarca$89.00
Sold 100 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.89
- 06:20 PMFEFelicityBright$44.50
Sold 50 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.89
- 06:20 PMISIstaroth$6.00
Bought 54.545455 Yes for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.11
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?"?
As of the latest update, OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? leads the field as the frontrunner with a 11% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $334.8K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 11% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 21.2% — an Expected Value gap of +10.2%, making it the premium value play in this pool.