Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, October 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 93.9% chance of winning. September 30 follows in second place at 88.5%, while September 15 sits in third with 78.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $600.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• October 31 (93.9%): Currently commanding the highest probability, October 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 94¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $20.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• September 30 (88.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, September 30 maintains a 88.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 89¢.
• September 15 (78.5%): Sitting in third place with a 78.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward September 15, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes September 9 (75.5%), September 7 (67%), and September 4 (62%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like September 2 are still attracting notable interest.

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome August 31 currently trades at 33%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 25.4%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -7.6%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies September 7 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 67% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 71.4% — yielding an impressive +4.3% EV Gap.