Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, September 30 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 85% chance of winning. August 31 follows in second place at 45%, while July 31 sits in third with 10%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $51K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• September 30 (85%): Currently commanding the highest probability, September 30 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 85¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $15.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• August 31 (45%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, August 31 maintains a 45% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 45¢.
• July 31 (10%): Sitting in third place with a 10% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward July 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome September 30 currently trades at 85%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 67.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -17.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies July 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 10% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 29.3% — yielding an impressive +19.3% EV Gap.