Next Claude Opus released by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Next Claude Opus released by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 96.8% chance of winning. October 31 follows in second place at 94.5%, while August 31 sits in third with 93.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $19.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (96.8%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 97¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $976 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• October 31 (94.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, October 31 maintains a 94.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 95¢.
• August 31 (93.5%): Sitting in third place with a 93.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward August 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes July 31 (86.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like July 31 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome August 31 currently trades at 93.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 83%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -10.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.