MO-02 Democratic Primary Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “MO-02 Democratic Primary Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Fred Wellman is dominating the market with an overwhelming 6,850% chance of winning. Joan VonDras follows in second place at 4,250%, while Tim Bilash sits in third with 4,050%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $73, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Fred Wellman (6,850%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Fred Wellman is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 6,850¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $5 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Joan VonDras (4,250%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Joan VonDras maintains a 4,250% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,250¢.
• Tim Bilash (4,050%): Sitting in third place with a 4,050% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Tim Bilash, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Nick Vivio (3,600%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Nick Vivio are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.