MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Bush <4% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 3,850% chance of winning. Bell <4% follows in second place at 3,300%, while Bell 4–8% sits in third with 850%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $666, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Bush <4% (3,850%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Bush <4% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 3,850¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $51 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Bell <4% (3,300%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Bell <4% maintains a 3,300% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3,300¢.
• Bell 4–8% (850%): Sitting in third place with a 850% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Bell 4–8%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Bush 4–8% (750%), Bush 12–16% (500%), and Bush 8–12% (500%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Bell 8–12% are still attracting notable interest.

The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.