Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins

$225.2K Vol
Jul 15, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Miami Marlins 53.5%
Seattle Mariners 46.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 7,100% chance of winning. 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 follows in second place at 5,800%, while O/U 7.5 sits in third with 5,250%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $225.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 (7,100%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 7,100¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 (5,800%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 maintains a 5,800% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,800¢.
  • O/U 7.5 (5,250%): Sitting in third place with a 5,250% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward O/U 7.5, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

  • Alternative Options: This includes Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins (4,650%), NRFI (4,600%), and O/U 8.5 (4,450%).
  • Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 are still attracting notable interest.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
11st 5 Innings O/U 2.57100.0%7100¢-7000¢
21st 5 Innings O/U 3.55800.0%5800¢-5700¢
3O/U 7.55250.0%$385250¢-5150¢
4Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins4650.0%$213.6K4650¢-4550¢
5NRFI4600.0%$5.7K4600¢-4500¢
6O/U 8.54450.0%$4.6K4450¢-4350¢
71st 5 Innings O/U 4.54400.0%4400¢-4300¢
8Spread -1.53450.0%$5913450¢-3350¢
9Spread -1.53450.0%$5913450¢-3350¢
101st 5 Innings Spread -1.53150.0%$123150¢-3050¢
111st 5 Innings O/U 5.53150.0%3150¢-3050¢
121st 5 Innings Spread -1.52550.0%$122550¢-2450¢
131st 5 Innings O/U 6.52250.0%2250¢-2150¢
141st 5 Innings Spread -2.52000.0%2000¢-1900¢
151st 5 Innings Spread -2.51450.0%1450¢-1350¢
16Extra Innings700.0%700¢-600¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 7 at 6:40PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game.

This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Jul 7, 2026

  • 08:23 AM
    0X0xA2142620cAc93b9B8017A45Aab7821eCd7E30653-1782453292651
    $8.94

    Bought 20.31818 Over for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 at 0.44

  • 08:05 AM
    AUAurorask
    $10.00

    Bought 19.230768 Miami Marlins for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins at 0.52

  • 07:32 AM
    MOMoimoimoiiom
    $2.20

    Bought 4.313724 Miami Marlins for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins at 0.51

  • 07:29 AM
    NONora123
    $10.00

    Bought 19.607842 Miami Marlins for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins at 0.51

  • 07:25 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $1.54

    Bought 3.02 Miami Marlins for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins at 0.51

  • 07:24 AM
    0X0x800f3Bd36CE1582afAaeC4a99D603177d7e0B7Ff-1777117066822
    $6.00

    Bought 12 Seattle Mariners for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins at 0.5

  • 07:21 AM
    DEdeezylabs
    $2.20

    Bought 5 Over for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 at 0.44

  • 07:20 AM
    SQSquatFT
    $121.70

    Bought 213.5 Under for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 at 0.57

  • 07:19 AM
    SQSquatFT
    $332.31

    Bought 583 Under for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 at 0.57

  • 07:01 AM
    MSMSake
    $10.00

    Bought 20 Seattle Mariners for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins at 0.5

  • 06:44 AM
    0X0xc92CA3e01ad489f732550B0912991d7beFFb6f15-1770260769185
    $200.00

    Bought 392.156861 Miami Marlins for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins at 0.51

  • 06:41 AM
    ICiceteaa
    $10.00

    Bought 19.607842 Miami Marlins for Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins at 0.51

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

C21
0xc249…2835
Event PnL
+$110.01
Volume
$3,600.00
Positions
No
PU2
purplegatto
Event PnL
-$59.24
Volume
$2,340.48
Positions
Yes
FO3
Forecastication2
Event PnL
-$62.31
Volume
$1,614.00
Positions
Yes
A34
0xA3c2…3278
Event PnL
+$5.95
Volume
$133.37
Positions
NoSeattle Mariners
GH5
ghrubba88
Event PnL
+$3.59
Volume
$102.50
Positions
No
DC6
dchen
Event PnL
+$0.67
Volume
$62.08
Positions
No
387
38791873984189
Event PnL
-$0.22
Volume
$56.21
Positions
Seattle Mariners
CA8
Calmaestonks
Event PnL
-$0.23
Volume
$45.68
Positions
Seattle Mariners

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins"?

As of the latest update, 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 leads the field as the frontrunner with a 7,100% win probability, followed by 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 at 5,800% and O/U 7.5 at 5,250%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $225.2K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

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