
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, NRFI is dominating the market with an overwhelming 78% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $280.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- NRFI (78%): Currently commanding the highest probability, NRFI is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 78¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $1.3K in volume.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NRFI | 78.0% | $1.3K | 78¢ | 22¢ |
Result Rules
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for July 2 at 10:10PM ET:
This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.
This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers win the game.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies NRFI as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 78% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 79.7% — yielding an impressive +1.7% EV Gap.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRFIBest EV | 78.0% | 79.7% | +1.7% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Jul 2, 2026
- 08:48 PMJUJubosaurus9$14.70
Bought 27.222221 Under for San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 at 0.54
- 08:33 PM0X0x87A80EB7A2eE12E4bAcDE856B54449BD23cceb35-1779233611656$4.75
Bought 8.8 Under for San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 at 0.54
- 08:23 PM00000347$1,001.84
Bought 2087.173332 Los Angeles Dodgers for Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) at 0.48
- 08:22 PMTITier0$15.00
Bought 31.914892 Los Angeles Dodgers for Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) at 0.47
- 08:17 PMNONottot$18.60
Bought 60 Los Angeles Dodgers for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) at 0.31
- 08:17 PMNONottot$14.39
Bought 59.958332 San Diego Padres for 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) at 0.24
- 08:17 PMCHchristmas174$3.00
Bought 6.382977 Over for San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 at 0.47
- 08:16 PMNONottot$18.60
Bought 60 Los Angeles Dodgers for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) at 0.31
- 08:16 PMNONottot$14.39
Bought 59.958332 San Diego Padres for 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) at 0.24
- 08:15 PMNONottot$18.60
Bought 60 Los Angeles Dodgers for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) at 0.31
- 08:15 PMNONottot$14.39
Bought 59.958332 San Diego Padres for 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) at 0.24
- 08:14 PMNONottot$15.00
Bought 50 Los Angeles Dodgers for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) at 0.3
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers"?
As of the latest update, NRFI leads the field as the frontrunner with a 78% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $280.5K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags NRFI as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 78% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 79.7% — an Expected Value gap of +1.7%, making it the premium value play in this pool.
