Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, 2300 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 94.8% chance of winning. 2350 follows in second place at 40%, while 2400 sits in third with 2.6%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $45.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- 2300 (94.8%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 2300 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 95¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $14.3K in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- 2350 (40%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 2350 maintains a 40% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 40¢.
- 2400 (2.6%): Sitting in third place with a 2.6% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 2400, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2300 | 94.8% | $14.3K | 95¢ | 5¢ |
| 2 | 2350 | 40.0% | $6.6K | 40¢ | 60¢ |
| 3 | 2400 | 2.6% | $15.1K | 3¢ | 97¢ |
Result Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome 2350 currently trades at 40%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 27.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -12.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 2400 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2.6% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 13.1% — yielding an impressive +10.5% EV Gap.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2300 | 94.8% | 87.8% | -7.1% |
| 2350 | 40.0% | 27.5% | -12.5% |
| 2400Best EV | 2.6% | 13.1% | +10.5% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Jul 23, 2026
- 07:57 PMFEfElon$34.00
Sold 100 Yes for Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.34
- 07:01 PMFEfElon$41.60
Sold 130 Yes for Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.32
- 06:44 PM3Z3zekiel$40.70
Bought 109.99 Yes for Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.37
- 05:07 PMFEfElon$15.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.31
- 05:07 PMFEfElon$3.30
Bought 11 Yes for Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.3
- 04:07 PMFEfElon$6.57
Bought 14.59 Yes for Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.45
- 04:06 PMFEfElon$103.63
Bought 110.24 Yes for Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.94
- 04:05 PMFEfElon$28.00
Bought 100 Yes for Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.28
- 04:05 PMBRbricc$40.00
Bought 148.148147 Yes for Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.27
- 04:01 PMFEfElon$59.06
Bought 347.4 Yes for Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.17
- 04:01 PMBRbricc$4.03
Bought 134.210525 Yes for Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.03
- 03:32 PMUKukg1$5.10
Bought 30 Yes for Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? at 0.17
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?"?
As of the latest update, 2300 leads the field as the frontrunner with a 94.8% win probability, followed by 2350 at 40% and 2400 at 2.6%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $45.3K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags 2400 as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 2.6% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 13.1% — an Expected Value gap of +10.5%, making it the premium value play in this pool.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around 2350. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 40%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 27.5%, a negative EV Gap of -12.5% that signals the contract is overpriced.