M0-02 Republican Primary Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “M0-02 Republican Primary Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Ann Wagner is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,550% chance of winning. Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes follows in second place at 4,450%, while Peter Pfeifer sits in third with 4,450%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Ann Wagner (4,550%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Ann Wagner is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,550¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes (4,450%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes maintains a 4,450% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,450¢.
• Peter Pfeifer (4,450%): Sitting in third place with a 4,450% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Peter Pfeifer, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Ryan Sheridan (4,450%), and Brandon Wilkinson (4,450%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Ryan Sheridan are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.