Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 26°C is dominating the market with an overwhelming 2,750% chance of winning. 27°C follows in second place at 2,000%, while 22°C or below sits in third with 1,950%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $87, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 26°C (2,750%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 26°C is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 2,750¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 27°C (2,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 27°C maintains a 2,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 2,000¢.
• 22°C or below (1,950%): Sitting in third place with a 1,950% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 22°C or below, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 25°C (1,900%), 32°C or higher (1,900%), and 28°C (1,750%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 24°C are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.