Lecornu out as French PM by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Lecornu out as French PM by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31, 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 38% chance of winning. June 30, 2026 follows in second place at 0.4%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $324K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31, 2026 (38%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31, 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 38¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $7.7K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• June 30, 2026 (0.4%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, June 30, 2026 maintains a 0.4% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 0¢.

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome December 31, 2026 currently trades at 38%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 34.8%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -3.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies June 30, 2026 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.4% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 29.8% — yielding an impressive +29.5% EV Gap.