Largest private company end of June?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Largest private company end of June?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, SpaceX is dominating the market with an overwhelming 98.6% chance of winning. OpenAI follows in second place at 0.4%, while Perplexity sits in third with 0.4%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $82.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• SpaceX (98.6%): Currently commanding the highest probability, SpaceX is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 99¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $20.3K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• OpenAI (0.4%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, OpenAI maintains a 0.4% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 0¢.
• Perplexity (0.4%): Sitting in third place with a 0.4% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Perplexity, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0.7%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Anthropic (0.2%), Anduril (0.1%), and Canva (0.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Databricks are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

If two or more companies are tied for the highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

The resolution sources for this market are:

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome SpaceX currently trades at 98.6%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 65.3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -33.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Epic Games as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.1% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 30.7% — yielding an impressive +30.6% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Stripe (EV Gap: +30.5%) and Kraken (EV Gap: +29.6%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.