Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 7.5% chance of winning. September 30 follows in second place at 2.9%, while August 31 sits in third with 0.8%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $71.3M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (7.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 8¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $122.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• September 30 (2.9%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, September 30 maintains a 2.9% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3¢.
• August 31 (0.8%): Sitting in third place with a 0.8% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward August 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies August 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.8% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 3.4% — yielding an impressive +2.7% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include September 30 (EV Gap: +0.7%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.