July Unemployment Rate

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “July Unemployment Rate”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 4.3% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 3,350% chance of winning. 4.2% follows in second place at 2,850%, while 4.4% sits in third with 2,800%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $25, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 4.3% (3,350%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 4.3% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 3,350¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 4.2% (2,850%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 4.2% maintains a 2,850% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 2,850¢.
• 4.4% (2,800%): Sitting in third place with a 2,800% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 4.4%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 4.1% (2,700%), ≤3.9% (2,200%), and 4.5% (2,050%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 4.0% are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.