July Inflation US - Annual

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “July Inflation US - Annual”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 3.4% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 34% chance of winning. 3.3% follows in second place at 25.5%, while 3.5% sits in third with 17.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $12K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 3.4% (34%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 3.4% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 34¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $2.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 3.3% (25.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 3.3% maintains a 25.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 26¢.
• 3.5% (17.5%): Sitting in third place with a 17.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 3.5%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~23%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 3.6% (8%), 3.2% (7%), and 4.0% (3.2%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 3.9% are still attracting notable interest.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 3.4% currently trades at 34%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 24.1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -9.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 3.8% as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2.2% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 19% — yielding an impressive +16.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 3.7% (EV Gap: +13.8%) and 3.9% (EV Gap: +12.5%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.