Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

「Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、United States が 4,350% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。France が 1,450% で2番手、United Kingdom が 1,100% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $2K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• United States (4,350%)：最も高い確率を持つ United States は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 4,350¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $1 の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• France (1,450%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、France は 1,450% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 1,450¢ で取引されています。
• United Kingdom (1,100%)：1,100% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は United Kingdom に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：Germany (950%)、Netherlands (900%)、Italy (600%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、Greece のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.