What will Trump post this week? (July 13 - July 19)

「What will Trump post this week? (July 13 - July 19)」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、World Cup が 8,100% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Ronaldo が 7,850% で2番手、Wall Street が 6,050% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $132 に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• World Cup (8,100%)：最も高い確率を持つ World Cup は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 8,100¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $40 の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Ronaldo (7,850%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Ronaldo は 7,850% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 7,850¢ で取引されています。
• Wall Street (6,050%)：6,050% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は Wall Street に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：Goal (4,550%)、Gold / Golden (4,250%)、Pope (4,200%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、Scam のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between July 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.

Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)

Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.

Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.

Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump

Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.