National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026?

「National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、Yes が 5,000% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。No が 5,000% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに — に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• Yes (5,000%)：最も高い確率を持つ Yes は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 5,000¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• No (5,000%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、No は 5,000% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 5,000¢ で取引されています。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a political group (group politique) is officially formed in the French Senate that represents the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The political declaration forming a qualifying group must be published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France within the specified timeframe.

A group will qualify as representing the RN if it satisfies at least one of the following:

- Its official name includes "Rassemblement National" or a clear variant thereof;

- Its political declaration published in the Journal Officiel explicitly identifies the group as representing the RN;

- A majority of its full members are RN party members or were assigned an RN nuance politique by the French Ministry of the Interior at the election in which they won their seat; or

- RN national leadership publicly recognizes the group as the party's group in the Senate, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

A mixed group containing both RN and other senators qualifies only if it meets at least one of the criteria above.

The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.

A qualifying group must represent the National Rally. A group which represents far-right, conservative, anti-immigrant, populist, or other RN-adjacent ideas without representing the party itself will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and publications of the Official Journal of France (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/).