Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

「Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、El-Sayed 25%+ が 4,400% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。El-Sayed 20–25% が 4,400% で2番手、El-Sayed 15–20% が 4,400% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに — に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• El-Sayed 25%+ (4,400%)：最も高い確率を持つ El-Sayed 25%+ は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 4,400¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• El-Sayed 20–25% (4,400%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、El-Sayed 20–25% は 4,400% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 4,400¢ で取引されています。
• El-Sayed 15–20% (4,400%)：4,400% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は El-Sayed 15–20% に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：El-Sayed 10–15% (4,400%)、El-Sayed 5–10% (4,400%)、El-Sayed <5% (4,400%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、Stevens <5% のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.