Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?

「Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、April 17, 2027 が 1,950% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。December 31, 2026 が 1,450% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $26 に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• April 17, 2027 (1,950%)：最も高い確率を持つ April 17, 2027 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 1,950¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $26 の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• December 31, 2026 (1,450%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、December 31, 2026 は 1,450% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 1,450¢ で取引されています。

On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced she is running in the 2027 French presidential election and has named Jordan Bardella as her intended Prime Minister. You can read more about that here: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen publicly names someone other than Jordan Bardella as the person she would appoint or support as Prime Minister if elected President by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying endorsement must be a public statement naming a preferred Prime Minister other than Jordan Bardella if Le Pen is elected President. Withdrawing support from Bardella alone will not qualify unless Le Pen also names another person for Prime Minister.

If Marine Le Pen definitively drops out, is disqualified, or does not run as a presidential candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “No” immediately.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Marine Le Pen, the National Rally, or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.