Iran successfully targets shipping by...?

「Iran successfully targets shipping by...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、August 31 が 9,150% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。July 31 が 8,200% で2番手、July 15 が 6,750% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $9.2K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• August 31 (9,150%)：最も高い確率を持つ August 31 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 9,150¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $3.8K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• July 31 (8,200%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、July 31 は 8,200% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 8,200¢ で取引されています。
• July 15 (6,750%)：6,750% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は July 15 に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.