Iran military action against a gulf state on...?

「Iran military action against a gulf state on...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、July 9 が 7,550% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。July 24 が 5,000% で2番手、July 14 が 4,750% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $5 に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• July 9 (7,550%)：最も高い確率を持つ July 9 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 7,550¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $5 の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• July 24 (5,000%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、July 24 は 5,000% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 5,000¢ で取引されています。
• July 14 (4,750%)：4,750% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は July 14 に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：July 21 (4,750%)、July 29 (4,750%)、July 19 (4,700%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、July 20 のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.