Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

「Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、No が 9,765% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Yes が 235% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $207K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• No (9,765%)：最も高い確率を持つ No は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 9,765¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Yes (235%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Yes は 235% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 235¢ で取引されています。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

The following do not qualify:

Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;

Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;

Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement;

Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and

Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented.

Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.