Iran leadership change by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Iran leadership change by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, June 30, 2027 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 25.5% chance of winning. December 31 follows in second place at 11.5%, while November 30 sits in third with 6.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $27.8M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• June 30, 2027 (25.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, June 30, 2027 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 26¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $436.3K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• December 31 (11.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, December 31 maintains a 11.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 12¢.
• November 30 (6.5%): Sitting in third place with a 6.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 30, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~56.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes October 31 (1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like October 31 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome June 30, 2027 currently trades at 25.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 25%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -0.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies December 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 11.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 14.7% — yielding an impressive +3.2% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include November 30 (EV Gap: +1.5%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.