Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,815% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 185%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $201.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No (9,815%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,815¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Yes (185%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 185% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 185¢.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

The following do not qualify:

Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;

Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;

Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement;

Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and

Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented.

Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.