How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 1250+ is dominating the market with an overwhelming 76.5% chance of winning. 1200–1249 follows in second place at 10.8%, while 1150–1199 sits in third with 5.1%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $73.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 1250+ (76.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 1250+ is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 77¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $17.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 1200–1249 (10.8%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 1200–1249 maintains a 10.8% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 11¢.
• 1150–1199 (5.1%): Sitting in third place with a 5.1% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 1150–1199, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~7.6%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes <950 (4.4%), 1100–1149 (2.5%), and 1050–1099 (1.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 950–999 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.

As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.

If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.

The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.

If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 1250+ currently trades at 76.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 56.4%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -20.1%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies <950 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 4.4% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 8.3% — yielding an impressive +3.9% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 1200–1249 (EV Gap: +1.1%) and 1150–1199 (EV Gap: +0.6%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.