How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 50-74 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 35% chance of winning. <50 follows in second place at 31.5%, while 75-99 sits in third with 30.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $22.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 50-74 (35%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 50-74 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 35¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $1.7K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• <50 (31.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, <50 maintains a 31.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 32¢.
• 75-99 (30.5%): Sitting in third place with a 30.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 75-99, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~3%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 100-124 (4.7%), and 125+ (2.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 100-124 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 75-99 currently trades at 30.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 9.7%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -20.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies <50 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 31.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 39.8% — yielding an impressive +8.3% EV Gap.