How high will inflation get in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How high will inflation get in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Above 4.5% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 20% chance of winning. Above 5% follows in second place at 13%, while Above 6% sits in third with 6%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $1.3M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Above 4.5% (20%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Above 4.5% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 20¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $92.1K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Above 5% (13%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Above 5% maintains a 13% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 13¢.
• Above 6% (6%): Sitting in third place with a 6% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Above 6%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~61%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Above 8% (4.4%), and Above 10% (3.8%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Above 8% are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Above 6% currently trades at 6%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Above 4.5% as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 20% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 33.1% — yielding an impressive +13.1% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Above 5% (EV Gap: +8.9%) and Above 8% (EV Gap: +3.3%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.