Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Bev Craig 5–10% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,700% chance of winning. Sian Astley <5% follows in second place at 4,350%, while Bev Craig <5% sits in third with 2,350%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $77, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Bev Craig 5–10% (4,700%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Bev Craig 5–10% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,700¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Sian Astley <5% (4,350%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Sian Astley <5% maintains a 4,350% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,350¢.
• Bev Craig <5% (2,350%): Sitting in third place with a 2,350% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Bev Craig <5%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Bev Craig 10–15% (750%), Bev Craig 15%+ (700%), and Sian Astley 5%+ (650%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Other are still attracting notable interest.

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.

The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).