GPU rental prices (H200) end of July?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “GPU rental prices (H200) end of July?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, $2.00-$3.00 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 28.5% chance of winning. $3.00-$4.00 follows in second place at 28.5%, while $4.00-$5.00 sits in third with 28.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $14K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• $2.00-$3.00 (28.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, $2.00-$3.00 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 28¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $2.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• $3.00-$4.00 (28.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, $3.00-$4.00 maintains a 28.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 28¢.
• $4.00-$5.00 (28.5%): Sitting in third place with a 28.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward $4.00-$5.00, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~14.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes $5.00-$6.00 (26.5%), <$2.00 (25.5%), and $6.00+ (25.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like $5.00-$6.00 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for July 31, 2026.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.

Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome $2.00-$3.00 currently trades at 28.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 10.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -18%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies $3.00-$4.00 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 28.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 37.5% — yielding an impressive +9% EV Gap.