Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Mayweather is dominating the market with an overwhelming 62.5% chance of winning. Pacquiao follows in second place at 37.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $155.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Mayweather (62.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Mayweather is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 63¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Pacquiao (37.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Pacquiao maintains a 37.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 38¢.

This market will resolve to "Mayweather" if Floyd Mayweather is officially declared the winner of the fight against Manny Pacquiao, scheduled for September 19, 2026 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.

It will resolve to "Pacquiao" if Manny Pacquiao is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the broadcast streamed on Netflix; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Mayweather currently trades at 62.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 56.7%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -5.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Pacquiao as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 37.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 43.3% — yielding an impressive +5.8% EV Gap.