Will Oregon reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Will Oregon reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, No domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 5100%. Yes le sigue en segundo lugar con 4900%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza —, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• No (5100%): Con la probabilidad más alta, No cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 5100¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Yes (4900%): Como la alternativa más viable, Yes mantiene una probabilidad del 4900% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 4900¢.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.

"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.

Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.

Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.

If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.

A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.