Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by July 31?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by July 31?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, ↑$100B domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 5750%. ↓$90B le sigue en segundo lugar con 5150%, mientras que ↓$85B se sitúa tercero con 5100%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $56, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• ↑$100B (5750%): Con la probabilidad más alta, ↑$100B cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 5750¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• ↓$90B (5150%): Como la alternativa más viable, ↓$90B mantiene una probabilidad del 5150% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 5150¢.
• ↓$85B (5100%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 5100%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia ↓$85B, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye ↑$110B (4900%), ↓$80B (4900%) y ↑$125B (4850%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como ↓$75B siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anduril's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.

Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.

If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.