Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, United States domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 4350%. France le sigue en segundo lugar con 1450%, mientras que United Kingdom se sitúa tercero con 1100%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $2K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• United States (4350%): Con la probabilidad más alta, United States cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 4350¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $1 de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• France (1450%): Como la alternativa más viable, France mantiene una probabilidad del 1450% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 1450¢.
• United Kingdom (1100%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 1100%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia United Kingdom, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye Germany (950%), Netherlands (900%) y Italy (600%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como Greece siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.