Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, August 31 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 4150%. July 31 le sigue en segundo lugar con 3950%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza —, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• August 31 (4150%): Con la probabilidad más alta, August 31 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 4150¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• July 31 (3950%): Como la alternativa más viable, July 31 mantiene una probabilidad del 3950% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 3950¢.

On July 25, 2026, Ukraine said it struck the cargo vessels Port Olya 2 and Begey in the Caspian Sea, alleging that they were involved in transporting military cargo between Russia and Iran. You can read more about the strikes here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Caspian Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a tanker anywhere in the Caspian Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level.

Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed.

Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the tanker will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.