Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, Yes domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 8450%. No le sigue en segundo lugar con 1550%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $203, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• Yes (8450%): Con la probabilidad más alta, Yes cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 8450¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• No (1550%): Como la alternativa más viable, No mantiene una probabilidad del 1550% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 1550¢.

As of market creation, Netflix is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Netflix's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.79 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.79 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If Netflix releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.

Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.

Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.

Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.

Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.