Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, April 17, 2027 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 1950%. December 31, 2026 le sigue en segundo lugar con 1450%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $26, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• April 17, 2027 (1950%): Con la probabilidad más alta, April 17, 2027 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 1950¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $26 de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• December 31, 2026 (1450%): Como la alternativa más viable, December 31, 2026 mantiene una probabilidad del 1450% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 1450¢.

On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced she is running in the 2027 French presidential election and has named Jordan Bardella as her intended Prime Minister. You can read more about that here: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen publicly names someone other than Jordan Bardella as the person she would appoint or support as Prime Minister if elected President by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying endorsement must be a public statement naming a preferred Prime Minister other than Jordan Bardella if Le Pen is elected President. Withdrawing support from Bardella alone will not qualify unless Le Pen also names another person for Prime Minister.

If Marine Le Pen definitively drops out, is disqualified, or does not run as a presidential candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “No” immediately.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Marine Le Pen, the National Rally, or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.