Iran military action against a gulf state on...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Iran military action against a gulf state on...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, July 9 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 7550%. July 24 le sigue en segundo lugar con 5000%, mientras que July 14 se sitúa tercero con 4750%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $5, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• July 9 (7550%): Con la probabilidad más alta, July 9 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 7550¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $5 de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• July 24 (5000%): Como la alternativa más viable, July 24 mantiene una probabilidad del 5000% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 5000¢.
• July 14 (4750%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 4750%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia July 14, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye July 21 (4750%), July 29 (4750%) y July 19 (4700%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como July 20 siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.