Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, No domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 9765%. Yes le sigue en segundo lugar con 235%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $207K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• No (9765%): Con la probabilidad más alta, No cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 9765¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Yes (235%): Como la alternativa más viable, Yes mantiene una probabilidad del 235% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 235¢.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

The following do not qualify:

Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;

Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;

Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement;

Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and

Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented.

Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.