Core PCE MoM - June 2026

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Core PCE MoM - June 2026”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 0.3% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 3,170% chance of winning. 0.2% follows in second place at 2,300%, while 0.4% sits in third with 1,350%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $3.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 0.3% (3,170%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 0.3% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 3,170¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $2.1K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 0.2% (2,300%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 0.2% maintains a 2,300% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 2,300¢.
• 0.4% (1,350%): Sitting in third place with a 1,350% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 0.4%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes ≤0.0% (1,250%), 0.1% (1,115%), and 0.6%+ (750%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 0.5% are still attracting notable interest.

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending June 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for June 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on July 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.

If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.