Core CPI MoM - July 2026

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Core CPI MoM - July 2026”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 0.2% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,450% chance of winning. 0.1% follows in second place at 4,300%, while 0.3% sits in third with 4,300%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $152, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 0.2% (4,450%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 0.2% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,450¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 0.1% (4,300%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 0.1% maintains a 4,300% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,300¢.
• 0.3% (4,300%): Sitting in third place with a 4,300% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 0.3%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 0.4% (4,200%), 0.5% (4,200%), and 0.6%+ (4,150%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like ≤0.0% are still attracting notable interest.

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in July 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.