Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 96.9% chance of winning. August 31 follows in second place at 96.2%, while July 31 sits in third with 85.8%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $3.7M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (96.9%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 97¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $158.5K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• August 31 (96.2%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, August 31 maintains a 96.2% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 96¢.
• July 31 (85.8%): Sitting in third place with a 85.8% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward July 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes July 17 (74.5%), July 10 (63.5%), and July 1 (25%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like June 30 are still attracting notable interest.

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.

Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.

If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome July 1 currently trades at 25%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -24%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies July 17 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 74.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 87.2% — yielding an impressive +12.7% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include June 30 (EV Gap: +3.4%) and July 10 (EV Gap: +3.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.