Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, $52 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 99.7% chance of winning. $50 follows in second place at 99.6%, while $60 sits in third with 99.3%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $167.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• $52 (99.7%): Currently commanding the highest probability, $52 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 100¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $7.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• $50 (99.6%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, $50 maintains a 99.6% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 100¢.
• $60 (99.3%): Sitting in third place with a 99.3% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward $60, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes $65 (98.2%), $55 (97.8%), and $56 (97.7%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like $63 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.

Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.

Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.

Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.

This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.

The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome $50 currently trades at 99.6%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 90.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -8.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies $85 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.3% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 33.9% — yielding an impressive +33.6% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include $75 (EV Gap: +15.1%) and $80 (EV Gap: +13.1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.